Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 191.665586 228.962082 273.907462 332.784291 408.967607 505.763795 6.406175e+02
2025-08-31 141.825140 183.620101 239.730906 322.830933 446.897994 632.572927 9.470615e+02
2025-09-07 123.955519 170.662018 238.897544 350.671609 539.608552 868.648326 1.547049e+03
2025-09-14 106.722293 153.480394 226.091309 354.371812 593.393401 1065.475066 2.226640e+03
2025-09-21 95.582309 142.667426 219.756630 365.458012 662.604000 1326.100951 3.290680e+03
2025-09-28 84.871735 130.370362 208.006707 362.906090 703.386694 1549.139150 4.527696e+03
2025-10-05 80.913416 128.433590 213.490251 394.443169 830.443890 2072.664097 7.651176e+03
2025-10-12 76.676455 125.207149 215.783960 419.908148 955.591436 2701.855474 1.292001e+04
2025-10-19 72.257213 120.906207 215.072591 438.460355 1072.642380 3428.666358 2.180020e+04
2025-10-26 67.789329 115.835824 211.824476 450.124970 1176.975614 4238.535392 3.681707e+04
2025-11-02 63.195821 109.894705 205.707999 453.016855 1256.510858 5056.877379 6.105475e+04
2025-11-09 58.188610 102.529270 195.356709 442.232633 1285.112994 5668.965958 9.297692e+04
2025-11-16 53.479803 95.433327 184.992117 430.250757 1310.126139 6360.278050 1.496953e+05
2025-11-23 49.290219 88.965507 175.168239 417.648739 1328.706315 7082.159175 2.495359e+05
2025-11-30 48.604428 89.714189 182.207853 456.805148 1592.139211 10438.405436 1.175445e+06
2025-12-07 46.081872 86.233053 178.540468 462.046350 1709.355359 12960.132425 4.846717e+06
2025-12-14 44.298921 84.164659 178.045865 477.667801 1894.525759 17214.556331 9.246356e+07
2025-12-21 41.811007 80.263864 172.322797 474.070495 1976.231922 20610.539105 4.343763e+11
2025-12-28 41.500406 81.255521 179.495238 518.719785 2391.607874 33784.987019 NaN
2026-01-04 40.772118 81.192976 183.855304 555.045963 2808.933903 54367.426025 NaN
2026-01-11 39.701845 80.200437 185.489567 581.659386 3201.677657 85243.290626 NaN
2026-01-18 38.379838 78.461994 184.735053 598.454905 3548.493558 129588.721570 NaN
2026-01-25 36.793124 75.921464 181.273062 602.626190 3797.108334 184730.101826 NaN